Posts Tagged ‘presidential election’

Electoral College Tie Still Possible

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

I’ve mused before about the possibility of a tie in the Electoral College this week. I think it’s still possible even with Obama’s strong showing over the last several weeks.

Here’s the LATimes current analysis: (They have the coolest maps)

Here’s my best shot at what an Electoral College tie would look like:

What would it take?
* McCain takes Florida, Colorado & Virginia from the Obama column
* McCain takes the three tossups: Indiana, Ohio & North Carolina

A fairly plausible scenario.

Another possibility is that New Hampshire gets weird and goes red again. In that case, to maintain the tie, McCain would have to give up Colorado and take New Mexico instead. Either of those southwestern states are a possibility for McCain and New Hampshire is a New England maverick – having gone red in 2000.

Yet another scenario sees Michigan going to McCain, and Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico to Obama. Not as likely, but still plausible.

Update: I almost forgot to add what I think is going to happen…

Obama by just 7 electoral college votes.

McCain vs. Clinton is Bad for Democracy

Wednesday, March 5th, 2008

Why? Because everyone will stay home on election day. Conservatives will stay home because McCain is too moderate.  Progressives will stay home because Clinton is too establishment. Moderates will stay home because neither candidates is scary enough to force a decision. Hawks will stay home because neither is strong enough on the war in Iraq. Doves will stay home because both supported the war in Iraq.

So who’s left? Not many. This scenario will almost certainly accelerate the democratic deficit in America that has seen voter turnout numbers tumble in recent elections.